Deer Mountain: New Year's Day
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Alaska: Alaska Expects 7,500 Job Losses in 2017; Southeast Alaska forecasted to lose about 600 jobs - In 2016, job losses spread through nearly all sectors of Alaska’s economy, and a more broad-based decline is forecasted statewide for 2017. According to Heidi Drygas, Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Labor, "It has been a long time since Alaskans were confronted with such a challeng- ing economic landscape. In fact, our economy is shrinking faster than at any time since the 1980s. We lost 6,800 jobs last year."

Southeast Alaska forecasted to lose about 600 jobs in 2017
Map Courtesy Alaska Dept. of Labor

The Alaska Department of Labor's 2017 economic forecast projects that job losses will continue in all sectors except health care, and layoffs will accelerate in sectors such as retail as the ripple effect of job losses impact aggregate demand and consumer spending.

According to Caroline Schultz, an economist statewide with the Department of Labor, employment losses began statewide in the last months of 2015 in the industries directly related to oil production, after prices fell. Initial loss was limited to the oil and gas industry and closely related sectors, including construction, professional and business services, and state government. In 2016, statewide losses spread into sectors not directly related to the oil industry.

More downstream job losses are expected this year statewide. After a 2.0 percent employment decline in 2016, the state is forecasted to lose 2.3 percent, or about 7,500 jobs, in 2017. This reflects decline in nearly every major industry, but while the net loss will likely be bigger than in 2016, direct oil-related losses are expected to slow.

Conor Bell, an economist at the Alaska Department of Labor in Juneau, reports in the January 2017 edition of Alaska Economic Trends, that Southeast Alaska is forecasted to fare slightly better than the state as a whole in 2017, a first in recent years. Southeast Alaska has underperformed the state overall for some time, plus it lost a greater share of jobs in 2009 — the only year Alaska lost jobs during the national recession — and regained fewer in the years that followed. With that tepid history the region has less ground to lose.

Southeast began to shed state government and construction jobs in 2015, and like the rest of the state, the effects are seeping into the secondary industries that depend on how well the region’s economic drivers fare.

Southeast is disproportionately affected by weakness in state government, but the region has almost none of the oil and gas employment that has been the state’s biggest source of loss reports Bell. Southeast also has more of a buffer from tourism than other regions, which will further temper its losses.

Most Southeast Alaska job loss will be in government

Southeast Alaska lost more than 500 state government jobs between 2014 and 2016, and state government is expected to remain the fastest-losing industry this year, at 300 jobs.

Cuts will likely slow in the coming fiscal year according to Bell, though, with less low-hanging fruit remaining. After two years of cutting costs in government, opportunities for savings will be harder to find. While layoffs seem certain, most state government losses will continue to come from attrition in 2017. Baby boomers are still reaching retirement age, and many of their positions will be eliminated or left unfilled.

Federal government employment in Southeast Alaska has been flat for the past few years and is forecasted to decline slightly in 2017 states Bell. Prior to its recent stability, federal employment fell continually for a decade except in 2010 when the U.S. Census was conducted.

Bell writes that local government in Southeast has also remained fairly steady amid steep declines in state funding, with a small loss of 50 jobs in 2016. This year will likely be slightly harder for school districts and local governments due to diminishing state funding. Even if schools sustain sharp funding cuts, though, they won’t feel them until the next school year begins in the fall.

Tribal government, which is counted as part of local government, will likely fare better, as it’s largely federally funded writes Bell. - More...
Friday AM - January 06, 2017

Alaska: NOAA Fisheries issues recovery plan for Cook Inlet beluga whales - NOAA Fisheries has released its recovery plan for the Cook Inlet beluga whale, which will guide efforts to recover the species to a point where they can be removed from the Federal List of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants.

Cook inlet beluga whale.
Credit: NOAA Fisheries

"This plan is a roadmap for how NOAA Fisheries and our partners can address threats to Cook Inlet belugas and work together towards recovery," said Jon Kurland, the agency's Assistant Regional Administrator for Protected Resources.

The recovery plan identifies and assesses ten potential threats, and indicates the risk each threat poses to Cook Inlet beluga whales. Threats of high concern include catastrophic events (such as natural disasters, spills, and mass strandings), in-water noise, and the cumulative and synergistic effects of multiple stressors. The plan also identifies criteria that could lead to reclassifying Cook Inlet beluga whales from endangered to threatened status, and ultimately to delisting due to recovery.

NOAA Fisheries listed Cook Inlet beluga whales as endangered in 2008 and designated critical habitat for the population in 2011. NOAA Fisheries estimates the population of Cook Inlet beluga whales to be just 340 animals, and the 10-year population trend continues to show declines. - More...
Friday AM - January 06, 2017

Ketchikan: Ketchikan Job Service Not Closing - In a release on Thursday by the Governor, he said that the Ketchikan Job Center in Ketchikan would be closing permanently. However, in a followup release Governor Bill Walker said this was incorrect, his release should have read, Kotzebue would be closing permanently.

The corrected list released later Thursday of some of the ways the State of Alaska has cut costs include:

• Job centers in Kotzebue, Barrow, and Seward have closed permanently.

• Alaska Vocational & Technical Education (AVTEC) closed its Muldoon campus in Anchorage, and cut its Allied Health Program.

• The Department of Education cut funding for the Alaska Native Science and Engineering Program (ANSEP), saving $960,000.

• The Department of Military and Veterans Affairs (DMVA) cut 40% from its operating budget.

• State parks in Sitka and Valdez are no longer being maintained - including picnic areas, bathroom facilities, and campsites. - More..
Friday AM - January 06, 2017

Alaska: Arctic sea ice loss impacts beluga whale migration - The annual migration of some beluga whales in Alaska is altered by sea ice changes in the Arctic, while other belugas do not appear to be affected.

A beluga whale pod in the Chukchi Sea.
Photo By Vicki Beaver, North Slope Borough

A new study led by the University of Washington finds that as Arctic sea ice takes longer to freeze up each fall due to climate change, one population of belugas mirrors that timing and delays its migration south by up to one month. In contrast, a different beluga population, also in Alaska, that migrates and feeds in the same areas doesn't appear to have changed its migration timing with changes in sea ice.

The paper was published Dec. 21 in the journal Global Change Biology.

"The biggest take-home message is that belugas can respond relatively quickly to their changing environment, yet we can't expect a uniform response across all beluga populations," said lead author Donna Hauser, a postdoctoral researcher at the UW's Polar Science Center.

"If we're trying to understand how these species are going to respond to climate change, we should expect to see variability in the response across populations and across time," Hauser said. "That may complicate our predictions for the future."

Two genetically distinct beluga populations spend winters in the Bering Sea, then swim north in the early summer as sea ice melts and open water allows them passage into the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. There they feast all summer on fish and invertebrates before traveling back south in the fall. Other research suggests the whales are taught by their mothers when to migrate and which route to take, so it was unclear if belugas would be responsive to sea ice changes.

The Chukchi beluga population's response to follow sea ice timing and delay migration likely means the whales are opportunistically feeding later into the fall, but researchers don't yet know if that delay is overall beneficial. On one hand, the whales might be gaining valuable food resources, but they also risk getting blocked from their migration path south if the ice quickly freezes up and catches them off guard. - More..
Friday AM - January 06, 2017