August 18, 2005
Thursday

The regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran has already declared that it is opposed to the new proposals of the EU and it also determined to resume enrichment process. There is little doubt that this will eventually lead to referral of the Iranian nuclear case to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for adoption of sanctions against Iran and the UNSC will encounter a cul-de-sac. Most probably, the only viable option for the US seems to be a direct general attack against Iran.

The UNSC is not at moment in a position to adopt a serious measure against the regime of Iran. A look at the countries sitting in the UNSC, especially the members with veto power, shows that nothing serious will come out of the UNSC against Iranian regime.

Russian Federation has nuclear cooperation with Iran and it will continue to do so because:

A- The Russians make money
B- They get advantages from Iran (for example in the Caspian Sea and the case of Chechens)
C- They get advantages from the West (like loans from the international agencies dominated by the West)
D- They get jobs for their unemployed scientists
E- They get to build at least 20 other nuclear reactors in Iran
F- They get to build more reactors in the other countries using the experience and money gained in Iran
G- They boost their regional policy
H- They show their dissatisfaction from the West, especially the USA, for not helping this country enough after the collapse of the USSR.

Then you have the Chinese there. They are opposed to the referral of the Iranian case to the UNSC because:

1- They are not interested to be a part of any sanctions against Iran
2- They are establishing very important ties with Iran for purchasing oil and gas in the next years
3- They are happy to create trouble for the American and European rivals in the Persian Gulf

Then you have a group of other countries, especially the members of the Non-aligned Movement. The members of this movement:

1- do not want to see the unilateral domination of the West over the nuclear issues
2- They are concerned about their own quest for nuclear energy in the future.
3- They see no legal basis for the Western and US demand against Iran in the nuclear issue
4- They are going to suffer from the sanctions against Iran

Then you have the European countries. The members of the EU have proved in the past that they not like a solid and unified organization. The increase in the number of the EU members has weakened the possibility of taking a unified position, instead of increasing it. The European countries have so many problems with the case of Iran, such as:

1- If the sanctions rise the prices of oil (let say over 120 dollars) they will lose dearly
2- They are selling so many products to Iran without the competition of the Americans and they lose the lucrative market
3- The Europeans have nothing real to offer to Iran and for the last couple of years they have only played a form of negotiations as if they represent a certain wing in the United States. They are not even able to perform the proposals that they have tabled. They are going to lose this leverage based on nothing.
4- The Europeans are more afraid of the USA's unilateralism than Iran's nuclear program.

Therefore, it is now clear that the nuclear case of Iran will not get an easy answer in the UNSC. However, there is an option that the US has repeated many times that it is open: a military attack by the USA, with or without the backing of the Europeans, against Iran. Such an attack will change the whole picture.

However, it seems that the US either will attack in a way to cripple the whole Islamic system, or not attack at all. A limited attack to the nuclear facilities or similar ones will lead to:

1- More vigorous plan of the regime for nuclear facilities
2- Increasing the policy of suppression against the people of Iran
3- Concentration of the terrorist activities of Iran's regime on the American targets
4- More opposition of Iran in the Middle East peace process and beefing up of the hardliners. More attacks against Israel and subverting the peace process.
5- Strengthening of the extremists in Iran
6- Giving many government posts to the civilian looking personnel of the Islamic revolutionary forces and Baseej (the disposable militias) (a kind of coup that has been planned, practiced and made ready for such occasions).
7- Fire missiles into Iraq, Kuwait and UAE (especially Dubai)
8- Bloc the Hormuz strait by sinking several big oil tankers there.
9- Ground attack against cities in Iraq and start of a close war with the US and UK's forces, in cooperation with the local Shiite militias, especially Moqtada Al-Sadr, Ansar, and the Sunnis.
10- Unleashing the Al-queda operatives (the members of Al-queda have been living in Iran and they are being prepared for the proper time) and activating the terrorist cells that Iran has established close ties with them since the American attack against Taleban in Afghanistan.

It seems that the people of Iran are not in position to revolt against the regime in case of a limited attack. The people are facing a ruthless regime, which has practiced for 25 years for keeping power without legitimacy. The regime had never legitimacy because its leaders including and especially Khomeini lied to the people from the square one. Its ideologists (like Ali Shaiati) produced fabrications about the history and ideology of Islam and misguided the people of Iran. They created something that never existed and pushed it down the throat of the hungry people of Iran

The idea that Iranians are going to stand by the mullahs if attacked, is as ridiculous as thinking that they will revolt after a few attacks to several points of Iran without seriously crippling the regime. Both of these ideas are outdated and worthless. The only time that the Iranians are going to be re-activated is the time that the regime is seriously crippled. Forget the experience of 8 years of idiotic war of Iran and Iraq. The conditions are not there anymore:

1- People do not believe in Islam in that way anymore.
2- The leadership of Khomeini (with all of his lies) is not there
3- No one believes in the Supreme Leader
4- Iran has been like a snake eating its own tail for the last 25 years. The resources consumed by the regime in those years are not there.
5- The international conditions, mainly resulting from the last years of the Cold War, are gone.

The results of the American attack will be:

1- Dismantling the most important center of Islamic terrorism. The present government of Iran is the most active sponsor of terrorism in the world.

2- Cutting the role of the Iranian regime in activities against the existence of Israel. The security of Israel is an important matter for the West and the USA. The Islamic regime of Iran is the most devout enemy of Israel due to the problems that have nothing to do with Iran. Israel and Iran (without the present regime) are natural allies due to their confrontation with the Arabs.

3- Possibility of commercial activities for the American companies in Iran, just like the Europeans and Russians which are now actively present in the Iranian market and enjoy the lack of competition by the American counterparts. The biggest trade partners of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the last few years were: Germany, Japan, France, UK and Italy. Of course the Russians have been selling everything from Chernobyl brand nuclear reactors to the second hand submarines to Iran.

4- A step in the direction of the proclaimed US policies for expansion of freedom and democracy in the region.

5- A step in the direction of the realization of the human rights

6- Possibility of better access to the Iranian oil and gas. This gives the US a good position to deal with the Europe and the Russians.

7- Putting a good impression on the people of Iran. During the last quarter of century that the Iranian regime has tried to antagonize the Iranians with the USA and its people, a kind of strong love has emerged between the USA and the people of Iran. The USA is the most popular country in the world for the Iranians, even among those who deny this (all of the Mullahs and their lackeys sent their children to the USA for educations and travel to the USA to seek medical attention or even to deliver a speech against the West).

Some people think that the Americans do not have the capabilities to inflict a crippling strike against the Islamic regime of Iran. This is not true. The problem of the American capabilities is the last obstacle. When the Americans decide to do the job and convince the Europeans and Russia to get out of way, they have plenty of resources to act:

1- The huge air and sea power of the USA that are sitting in the Persian Gulf with almost nothing to do
2- The new military bases in Azerbaijan
3- The Baluchestan of Pakistan, which is not really under the control of Pakistan
4- The new huge military bases in Afghanistan
5- The troops and facilities in Iraq
6- The facilities in the Bahrain (the main center of the US naval units in the Persian Gulf), Kuwait (the bases established after liberation of Kuwait from Saddam's regime), Qatar (the new center of the American forces after downsizing the forces in the Saudi Arabia), Oman (one of the oldest US allies in the region) and the UAE (in conflict with Iran over the three Islands of the Persian Gulf), even if we forget the Saudi Arabia
7- The bases in Turkey (especially Incerlik)
8- The facilities in Tajikistan
9- The facilities and assistance of Israelis Diego Garcia Base in the Indian Ocean

Bahman Aghai Diba,
PhD International Law
Leesburg, VA - USA

Bahman Aghai Diba is a consultant in international law to the World Resources Company in the USA

 

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