By Bahman Aghai Diba
August 18, 2005
The UNSC is not at moment in a position to adopt a serious measure against the regime of Iran. A look at the countries sitting in the UNSC, especially the members with veto power, shows that nothing serious will come out of the UNSC against Iranian regime.
Russian Federation has nuclear cooperation with Iran and it will continue to do so because:
A- The Russians make money
Then you have the Chinese there. They are opposed to the referral of the Iranian case to the UNSC because:
1- They are not interested
to be a part of any sanctions against Iran
Then you have a group of other countries, especially the members of the Non-aligned Movement. The members of this movement:
1- do not want to see the unilateral
domination of the West over the nuclear issues
Then you have the European countries. The members of the EU have proved in the past that they not like a solid and unified organization. The increase in the number of the EU members has weakened the possibility of taking a unified position, instead of increasing it. The European countries have so many problems with the case of Iran, such as:
1- If the sanctions rise the
prices of oil (let say over 120 dollars) they will lose dearly
Therefore, it is now clear that the nuclear case of Iran will not get an easy answer in the UNSC. However, there is an option that the US has repeated many times that it is open: a military attack by the USA, with or without the backing of the Europeans, against Iran. Such an attack will change the whole picture.
However, it seems that the US either will attack in a way to cripple the whole Islamic system, or not attack at all. A limited attack to the nuclear facilities or similar ones will lead to:
1- More vigorous plan of the
regime for nuclear facilities
It seems that the people of Iran are not in position to revolt against the regime in case of a limited attack. The people are facing a ruthless regime, which has practiced for 25 years for keeping power without legitimacy. The regime had never legitimacy because its leaders including and especially Khomeini lied to the people from the square one. Its ideologists (like Ali Shaiati) produced fabrications about the history and ideology of Islam and misguided the people of Iran. They created something that never existed and pushed it down the throat of the hungry people of Iran
The idea that Iranians are going to stand by the mullahs if attacked, is as ridiculous as thinking that they will revolt after a few attacks to several points of Iran without seriously crippling the regime. Both of these ideas are outdated and worthless. The only time that the Iranians are going to be re-activated is the time that the regime is seriously crippled. Forget the experience of 8 years of idiotic war of Iran and Iraq. The conditions are not there anymore:
1- People do not believe in
Islam in that way anymore.
The results of the American attack will be:
1- Dismantling the most important center of Islamic terrorism. The present government of Iran is the most active sponsor of terrorism in the world.
2- Cutting the role of the Iranian regime in activities against the existence of Israel. The security of Israel is an important matter for the West and the USA. The Islamic regime of Iran is the most devout enemy of Israel due to the problems that have nothing to do with Iran. Israel and Iran (without the present regime) are natural allies due to their confrontation with the Arabs.
3- Possibility of commercial activities for the American companies in Iran, just like the Europeans and Russians which are now actively present in the Iranian market and enjoy the lack of competition by the American counterparts. The biggest trade partners of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the last few years were: Germany, Japan, France, UK and Italy. Of course the Russians have been selling everything from Chernobyl brand nuclear reactors to the second hand submarines to Iran.
4- A step in the direction of the proclaimed US policies for expansion of freedom and democracy in the region.
5- A step in the direction of the realization of the human rights
6- Possibility of better access to the Iranian oil and gas. This gives the US a good position to deal with the Europe and the Russians.
7- Putting a good impression on the people of Iran. During the last quarter of century that the Iranian regime has tried to antagonize the Iranians with the USA and its people, a kind of strong love has emerged between the USA and the people of Iran. The USA is the most popular country in the world for the Iranians, even among those who deny this (all of the Mullahs and their lackeys sent their children to the USA for educations and travel to the USA to seek medical attention or even to deliver a speech against the West).
Some people think that the Americans do not have the capabilities to inflict a crippling strike against the Islamic regime of Iran. This is not true. The problem of the American capabilities is the last obstacle. When the Americans decide to do the job and convince the Europeans and Russia to get out of way, they have plenty of resources to act:
1- The huge air and sea power
of the USA that are sitting in the Persian Gulf with almost nothing
Bahman Aghai Diba,
and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sitnews.