All economic regions except Southeast are projected to grow
July 30, 2007
The State of Alaska
The statewide population is projected to increase through 2030. As the state's population ages, annual growth is expected to slow. Rather than forecasting economic conditions, the projections are based on the current population, and historical trends in birth, death and migration levels. While the most likely projection is approximately 840,000 Alaska residents by 2030, based on variations in births and migration that Alaska has experienced over recent years, the total population may be as high as 950,000, or as low as 730,000.
The Alaska Native population is projected to increase from 118,884 in 2006 to 162,820 in 2030. The projected increase in the Alaska Native population is largely due to high rates of birth, but aging and increases in Native life expectancy are expected to play roles as well. Similar to the state population as a whole, the Alaska Native population aged 65 or more is expected to increase strongly, from 7,212 in 2006 to 19,004 in 2030. With high rates of birth relative to other groups in the state, the Alaska Native share of the total youth population is expected to increase over the projection period.
Regions, Boroughs and Census Areas
Rates of growth are projected to vary across the state's economic regions, ranging from strong growth projected for the Anchorage/Mat-Su Region, to some population loss in the Southeast Region.
The population in the Ketchikan Gateway Borough is projected to decrease from 13,174 to 11,095 by 2030.
All economic regions except
Southeast are projected to grow. Population projections for the
boroughs and census areas within Alaska's economic regions vary
further, with several areas projected to decline in population.
While aging plays an important role at the region and borough
level, much of the projected population change for each area
is based on rates of migration experienced over the past 15 years.
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