Spring 2010 Revenue Forecast
April 10, 2010
Alaska Department of Revenue Commissioner Patrick Galvin on Friday
released the Spring 2010 Revenue Forecast, which provides an
update to the Fall 2009 Revenue Sources Book released
in December. The department projects the state will collect
$5.6 billion in Unrestricted Revenue in FY 2010 and $5.3 billion
in FY 2011, this compares to the Fall 2009 Forecast of $4.8B
and $5.2B respectively. In February, the department released
an interim FY2010 revenue forecast of $5.4B in Unrestricted Revenue.
The department now forecasts Alaska North Slope oil prices to
be $75.32 and $77.65 in FY 2010 and 2011 respectively, compared
to $66.93 and $76.35 from the Fall 2009 Forecast. Revenue from
oil and gas production is expected to provide over 88% of the
state's unrestricted revenue through FY 2019.
Oil production on the North Slope in FY2010 is forecast to be
approximately 650,000 barrels of oil per day, a 6.2% decline
from FY2009, and in FY 2011, we forecast another 4.8% decline,
down to approximately 619,000 barrels per day. We anticipate
new production coming from the Nikaitchuq field before the end
of CY 2010, and continued development in the new Oooguruk field
and in Point Thomson.
In order to calculate revenue under production tax laws, our
forecast must include assumptions regarding investment levels.
Our forecast assumes that the economies of the U.S. and other
developed nations will gradually improve, strengthening demand
for petroleum products and therefore encouraging a robust oil
price environment. We forecast spending on the North Slope to
continue at or above current levels, and slightly increasing
in FY 2011, with forecasted lease expenditures of $4.6 billion
and $5.1 billion in FY 2010 and 2011, respectively. This represents
a slight increase in expected spending above the Fall 2009 Forecast
amounts of $4.5B and $5.0B, respectively.
Unrestricted non-oil revenues are forecasted to total $602 million
in FY 2010 and $634 million in FY 2011. These estimates are
down from $650 million in FY 2009.
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