Spring 2008 Revenue Forecast
April 12, 2008
(SitNews) - Alaska Department of Revenue Commissioner Patrick
Galvin on Firday released the FY 2008 Spring Revenue Forecast.
General Purpose Unrestricted Revenue (GPUR) for FY 2008 is projected
to total $8.6 billion, a state record. Unrestricted oil revenues
are expected to generate $7.8 billion in FY 2008 and $6.4 billion
in FY 2009, representing 91% and 90% of GPUR, respectively.
Alaska's new production tax is projected to bring in about $4.9
billion, or close to 58% of the revenue total. Total unrestricted
oil revenues are forecasted to be almost $80 million higher than
the preliminary Spring 2008 forecast. This forecast incorporates
information from the annual production tax reports for 2007,
filed April 1, 2008.
Also on April 1, the department received its first comprehensive
reports from oil and gas explorers and developers on the North
Slope. It appears that high oil prices and the additional incentives
provided through the ACES legislation have encouraged oil and
gas exploration and development, and a total of $250 million
in capital credits were earned by these companies in FY 2008.
The department anticipates continued exploration and development
from these companies in FY 2009, and has projected credit totals
of $400 million.
Revenue totals include payments made under the new ACES production
tax plan signed into law by Governor Palin in December. Along
with tax return information filed on April 1, oil and gas production
companies remitted "true-up payments," which represent
the difference between taxes paid under the previous production
tax (PPT) and the tax owed under ACES for the period of July
1, 2007 through December 31, 2007. These true-up payments totaled
Revenue officials project Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude oil
prices on the West Coast to average $85.73 in FY 2008, representing
a 39% increase from the FY 2007 level of $61.63 per barrel.
The department projects ANS crude oil prices will decline to
$83.04 per barrel in FY 2009.
North Slope production is forecast to average about 722,000 barrels
per day in FY 2008, down 2.4% from FY 2007 production of 739,700
barrels per day. Production is forecast to decline another 4.6%
in FY 2009 to 689,000 barrels per day.
Lease expenditures are projected to total $4.3 billion in FY
2008, 17% more than FY 2007 expenditures of $3.7 billion. In
FY 2009, the department expects lease expenditures to increase
to $4.7 billion, up about 9% over FY 2008 levels.
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