Department of Revenue Releases Spring 2019 Revenue Forecast
March 18, 2019
Not counting transfers from the Permanent Fund, the Department is forecasting unrestricted revenue of $2.7 billion in FY 2019 and $2.3 billion in FY 2020.
Additionally, the Permanent Fund is expected to transfer $2.7 billion to the general fund in FY 2019 and $2.9 billion to the general fund in FY 2020. These amounts are available both for payment of Permanent Fund Dividends and for general government spending.
The forecast represents a decrease in expected Unrestricted General Fund revenue of $89 million for FY 2019 and an increase of $39 million for FY 2020, compared to the projection in the fall 2018 forecast. Beyond FY 2020, the unrestricted revenue forecast has been decreased by between $50 million and $100 million per year for FY 2021-2028.
Alaska North Slope oil prices are forecast to average $68.90 per barrel for FY 2019 and $66.00 for FY 2020. Based on a review of oil market fundamentals, the Department chose not to revise its view on long term oil price since the fall forecast. Long term, the Department continues to expect oil prices to stabilize in the low 60’s in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars.
The revenue forecast is also based on projected North Slope oil production averaging 511,500 barrels per day in FY 2019 and 529,500 barrels per day in FY 2020. The production forecast is prepared in collaboration with the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and reflects an updated assessment of future production that slightly adjusted production expectations for the next several years. Production is still expected to remain around 500,000 barrels per day over the next decade as new developments offset production declines from existing fields.
State revenue comes from four major sources:
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Editing by Mary Kauffman, SitNews
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