by Bahman Aghai Diba
March 02, 2005
The people of Iran are not going to rise against the regime of the Islamic Republic under any conditions. How much pressure and mistreatment, humiliation, violation of rights, discrimination and suppression is enough for the people to revolt? The wrong economic policies, unemployment, violation of human rights, consideration the women as second hand human beings or part of the lifeless materials, imposing the judicial regulations of the ancient Arab tribes for the people living in the 21st century, mistreatment of the political prisoners, killing them as ordinary criminals, renaming the solitary confinement as private suite, violation of the children's rights, changing the water courses according to the wishes of the influential persons, pushing the people to addiction to narcotic drugs because there is no prohibition in Islam for such drugs ( in fact most of the Mullahs are serious drug addicts. Not a single prominent Mullah has issued a Fatwa to prohibit the narcotic drugs, while they have published volumes of books about the women's period and the toilet training), the universities are dead due to lack of proper professor, accepting the students on the basis of services to the regime and graduating them without having proper credentials, bad relations with almost all countries due to misunderstanding the international relations, wasting the time and energy of people for training the illiterate Mullahs and their relatives as politicians and so on. Losing the international opportunities in all cases especially in the Caspian Sea and the newly independent states in the north of Iran. Poverty, dividing the people to the insiders and outsiders on the basis of services to the regime, suppression of the journalists, limiting the Internet, crippling the freedom of expression, using the oil resources against the national interests, intervention in the places like Palestine that the people of Iran do care what happens there (and the Arabs consider these acts as the Iranian intervention. They see Iran as Israel, an occupier of the Arab lands due to the dispute over three islands in the Persian Gulf and they do not tolerate even the historical and geographical name of the Persian Gulf), useless hostility with the USA. Eight years of meaningless war, millions of dead, maimed and chemically injured people. Forcing millions of people to leave Iran and taking out their skills to the other countries. Giving the judiciary to the foreigners, including illiterate Mullahs that do not even know the teachings of Islam (no respected Islamic clergy has been working in the Iranian judiciary since the revolution. All judges of the revolutionary courts are young and illiterate, politically ambitious and religiously poor mullahs), turning the system to the dictatorship of the so-called Supreme Leader, violating even the Constitutional Law of the regime, and making the people less religious (if you consider the Islamization as the main polity of the regime, this has failed too). I can continue the list until the Microsoft Word explodes. Aren't these enough?
"The USA will attack Iran within two years." This sentence as fresh as it looks, it was said couple years by Dr. Ali Akbar Velayati, the Former Foreign Minister of Iran, the present Adviser of the Supreme Leader in Foreign Affairs (Foreign Minister of the Shadow cabinet) and the candidate of Iran's presidency. This means that the regime of Iran has been practically counting on the US attack for the last few years. The government of Iran is ready and expecting the US attack.
As far as the people of Iran are concerned, they have always thought the US has brought the Mullahs to power in Iran (through the Green Belt Policy, Carter's Doctrine, diffusing the army of Iran to avoid a coup and negotiations with Khomeini in Paris and so), and they should push the mullahs back to their carpets. Iranians are really fed up of the Islamic government. The extent of the oppressive policies of Mullahs in Iran is not comparable to any place. The people are ready to accept just anything. The discussions of the opposition groups about being considerate not to replace this dictatorship with another one are useless. The time for such planning has passed. Unfortunately, the people are ready for anything. They do not know exactly what they want. But they know exactly what they do not want. The only thing that they do not want is a religious government of any kind. This means that the Mujahedin Khalgh Organozation (MKO), the nationalist-religious elements in Iran (under any cover such as the Freedom Movement), and similar trends are wasting their times. If the people spend a time to sacrifice themselves for a new regime or invite the foreign forces to do this for them, they want something very much different than the tenets of the Islamic regime. The people of Iran need a government to give them a period of de-Islamization and de-Arabization. If this does not happen through a peaceful process, it will lead to a period of revenge and retaliation. If left unattended it may even lead to disintegration of Iran. The Forces of disintegration are already at work, and if the central regime remains in the hand of Mullahs, many parts of Iran are ready to accept the disintegration as a response to the imposed Islamic regime.
However, the US must either attack in a way to cripple the whole Islamic system, or not attack at all. A limited attack to the nuclear facilities or similar ones will lead to:
Also, the people are not in position to revolt against the regime in case of a limited attack. The people are facing a ruthless regime, which has practiced for 25 years for keeping power without legitimacy. The regime had never legitimacy because its leaders including and especially Khomeini lied to the people from the square one. Its ideologists (like Ali Shaiati) produced fabrications about the history and ideology of Islam and misguided the people of Iran. They created something that never existed and pushed it down the throat of the hungry people of Iran
The idea that Iranians are going to stand by the mullahs if attacked, is as ridiculous as thinking that they will revolt after a few attacks to several points of Iran without seriously crippling the regime. Both of these ideas are outdated and worthless. Do you think a few bombs to the nuclear sites will make these people take side with the bombers or regime? The people are not going to do anything. They will rush home to consume domestically made cheap Vodka, made by the respected Armenian Brothers and listen to the BBC and VOA. The only time that the Iranians are going to be re-activated is the time that the regime is seriously crippled. The Iranians will never stand by the Mullahs under any conditions. Forget the experience of 8 years of idiotic war of Iran and Iraq. The conditions are not there anymore:
Some people think that the Americans do not have the capabilities to inflict a crippling strike against the Islamic regime of Iran. This is not true. The problem of the American capabilities is the last obstacle. When the Americans decide to do the job and convince the Europeans and Russia to get out of way (The main problem that stops the USA is the Europe. The European are afraid of the USA more than Iran. They are heavily dependent on the Persian Gulf and later Caspian Sea oil and they know that control of the region by the USA means that their life bottle is in the hand of the USA. The Russians still have many of the dreams of the time that they superpower and they have long term plan for Iran.), they have plenty of resources to act.
Up to this point I was more concerned about the interests of the Iranian side. What about the Americans? What the Americans will gain if they attack Iran? I think there are many advantages. Some of them are:
Bahman Aghai Diba, Ph.D., International
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